Challow Hurdle @ Newbury

Today's big race looks fairly open on the surface but for me the form of Taquin Du Seuil is the stand out form and he looks the one to beat.  His main rival Clondaw Kaempher previous wins, both when odds on, gives me a cause to doubt the strength of that form, can't deny that McCain is in good form 98 winners this season and 11 of them in past two weeks but is the win against Lienosus that great?  For me Paul Nicholls runner, Easter day, is a bigger danger but as he has never raced on heavy ground got to leave him alone meaning the selection is Taquin Du Seuil, 7-4 pretty much everywhere as I write.

4 fold on the football today Spurs, Nottingham Forest, Rotherham & Cheltenham 11-1

So make it a 5 fold all of the above for 32-1

Cheltenham 01jan13

Phew that was unlucky and I got 20-1 in the morning still Bet365 paid 1/4 the odds so 5-1 for the each way made it a profitable day.

For those going to Cheltenham on New Years Day buy your tickets online and the cost is only £25 instead of £30 for walk up entry - this is available even on the morning of the meeting

Gates open 10.30 first race 12.15 last race 3.40 - see you there Happy New Year

OK back to business

Long Run - for me poor value so I have to oppose him he is just not quite consistent enough for me to take 2-1.  Have to see evidence of Gran Crus recovery before I could back him and Cue Card will surely struggle over this trip in the heavy. Riverside Theatre is of some interest but beaten by Long Run in this two years ago and has been winning over 21f rather than 3m.  So for me that leaves an each way bet on Captain Chris 20-1 in a place (bet 365) likes going right handed much more than left so his runs at Cheltenham can be excused and was 3rd last year 4-1 to get in the frame sounds better value than 2-1 for the win.

Stand out best bet of the day for me is in the race before the King George - Countrywide Flame a solid 7-4

Ascot today - best bet

Hi

Not going having a weekend off!

However, my fancy today for Ascot is Lyvius in the Ladbroke at 3.10, currently 10-1 (bet365) and shows at 12-1 on Victor and the exchanges.  This is a dramatically open race but he can surely be forgiven for his run in the grade 1 at Aintree last season.  Slight concern that Geraghty rides Cash and Go but not sure how that works at the yard but the claimer takes 5 of the 8lb rise Lyvius picked up for the impressive win at Newbury at the end of last month and there was a suggestion in that run that he got a bit tired at the end so may come on for that as well.  Trainer is sure he likes the ground, a young horse that we may be catching on the way up, backable each way as well at 1/4 first 4

Happy Xmas all